Will Luka Doncic Win MVP? Yes, If He Plays 65 Games

Luka Doncic has scored 268 points in his first seven games of the 2026-27 season. That's 38.3 a night, on 49.7% shooting, with 41 made 3s. He dropped 52 on Utah on Oct. 25, 2026, then put up 45 points, 15 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 steals and eight 3s against Toronto on Nov. 1, a line NBA.com says nobody in league history had ever posted. The next night he scored 42 on Miami.

So, will Luka Doncic win MVP this season? I think he will. But the thing standing in his way isn't Victor Wembanyama or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It's the NBA's 65-game rule, and Luka's own history with it.

Full disclosure: my dad Steve and I are both Lakers fans. Take my read with that in mind. I tried to keep it honest by putting the numbers first.

Has Luka Doncic ever won MVP? No. In eight NBA seasons before this one, his best finish was third, in 2023-24. He has received four first-place votes in his career, all in that 2023-24 season, per Basketball-Reference's MVP voting pages.

01 The Start Is Every Bit as Good as It Looks

Here's every regular-season game Luka has played so far, from ESPN's game log (dates are Pacific time):

That works out to a 68.3% true shooting percentage by my math (points divided by twice the sum of field-goal attempts and 0.44 times free-throw attempts). Basketball-Reference has him at the same 38.3 points per game. He's scored at least 37 in each of his last five games, and four of them were 40-plus.

NBA.com also points out that Luka's 226 points through his first six games made him just the third player since 1960 to reach 225 that fast, after Michael Jordan in 1986 and Wilt Chamberlain twice.

That stat is fun. It's also the first warning sign.

02 Hot Starts Don't Win MVP by Themselves

I pulled the game logs for those three seasons from Basketball-Reference to see how the other fast starts ended. None of them ended with an MVP.

Wilt averaged 50.4 points in 1961-62 and still finished second. Jordan averaged 37.1 in 1986-87 and lost to Magic Johnson by a mile: Magic got 65 first-place votes to Jordan's 10. Voters don't hand this award out for scoring alone, and Luka already knows that better than anyone. He won the scoring title last season at 33.5 points a game and got zero first-place votes.

Look at where last season's top four finished, and where their teams finished, using Basketball-Reference's 2025-26 standings:

SGA took 83 of the 100 first-place votes. The order tracks pretty closely with the standings. Luka needs the Lakers to win, and right now they are: 6-2 and fourth in the West as of Nov. 3, 2026, per ESPN's standings. That part is going his way.

03 The Real Opponent Is the 65-Game Rule

Since 2023-24, a player has to appear in at least 65 regular-season games to be eligible for MVP and the other major awards. A game only counts if he plays at least 20 minutes, though up to two games of 15 to 20 minutes can count too, per NBC Sports Philadelphia's explainer. There's a 62-game exception for a season-ending injury, and an "extraordinary circumstances" appeal, which is how the NBA handled last season's cases.

Here's Luka's track record, season by season, from Basketball-Reference:

In the three seasons since the rule started, Luka has cleared 65 games on his own once. Last season he got to 64, and only made the ballot because the NBA and the players' union agreed that the two games he missed in December for the birth of his daughter in Slovenia counted as an extraordinary circumstance, per the NBA's April 16, 2026 release. His regular season then ended on April 2, 2026, with a left hamstring injury, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Appeals don't always go the player's way, either. In the same release, the NBA said Anthony Edwards played 60 qualified games, took his case to an independent arbitrator and lost. He wasn't eligible for any 2025-26 awards.

This season Luka has already missed one game. He sat out the Lakers' Oct. 28 win over the Clippers with back tightness, on the second night of a back-to-back, per Yahoo Sports. That's a smart call in October. It also means the math is already running. With 74 games left on the Lakers' schedule, Luka needs 58 more qualifying games. He can miss 16 more and stay eligible without an appeal. (If you want the bigger picture on the schedule, here's how many games are in an NBA season and why the calendar runs into April.)

I played basketball and baseball growing up, and Steve coached some of my baseball teams. Any coach will tell you the best players have to be in the lineup to help you. The MVP rule just writes that down. The one thing Luka hasn't done consistently in the last three years is play enough games.

04 The Best Case Against Luka

I'll give the other side its due. There are three good arguments.

Wembanyama is just as likely, and the betting market agrees. FanDuel Sportsbook had Wembanyama and Luka tied at +200 as of Nov. 3, 2026, with SGA next at +400, per FanDuel Research. Wemby finished third last season for a 62-win team that went on to win the West. Through seven games he's averaging 25.7 points and 10.7 rebounds, and NBA.com had him leading the league at 4.2 blocks a game going into Nov. 2. Wemby's case is built on both ends of the floor. He scores, and he takes points away from the other team.

SGA is the two-time defending MVP. Voters like him, and his story could get better. The Thunder lost Jalen Williams (dislocated ankle, fractured fibula) and Cason Wallace (torn labrum) in the same game, and Chet Holmgren is out 8-10 weeks with a small patellar tendon tear, per NBC Sports. If Oklahoma City keeps winning anyway, that's a classic MVP case. He's at 28.4 points a game so far.

It's seven games. Luka isn't going to average 38 all season, and I'm not pretending he will. Wilt and Jordan's starts show what a big scoring number can and can't get you.

All fair. But here's where I land. Wemby's case depends on Luka missing time. SGA's depends on OKC winning without three of its top players. Luka's depends mostly on Luka. He was leading the league in scoring when NBA.com checked on Nov. 2, his team is winning, and the voters who passed on him last season don't have the "but the Lakers were fourth" excuse right now. If he stays on the floor, I don't see who beats him.

05 My Pick, and What to Watch

Yes, Luka Doncic wins MVP, as long as he plays 65 games. I'd watch three things:

• Games played. He can miss 16 more. If he's past 10 missed games by the All-Star break, start worrying.

• The Lakers' seed. Last season's top four MVP finishers all came from top-four West teams, and the winner came from the No. 1 seed. The Lakers need to finish near the top, not just in the play-in conversation.

• Back-to-backs. He already sat one with back tightness. How the Lakers handle the second night of back-to-backs will decide a lot of this.

If you want to read the other side of a Lakers debate, our junior writer made the case for LeBron James as the GOAT. And if you're new to the stat lines, here's what a double-double is. Luka already has three of them in his first seven games.

I'll be watching the Lakers' games-played column as closely as the box scores. Tell us who you'd vote for right now.

06 Sources

• Game logs and season stats: ESPN game logs for Luka Doncic, Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2026-27 regular season, through Nov. 2, 2026); ESPN NBA standings (Nov. 3, 2026).

• Basketball-Reference: Luka Doncic career stats; MVP voting for 1962, 1963, 1987, 2020-2025 and 2026; Wilt Chamberlain and Michael Jordan game logs; 2025-26 standings.

• NBA.com: Starting 5, Nov. 2, 2026.

• NBA.com: Cade Cunningham, Luka Doncic ruled eligible for 2025-26 NBA awards, April 16, 2026.

• Los Angeles Times, April 16, 2026.

• NBC Sports Philadelphia: 65-game rule explainer.

• Yahoo Sports, Oct. 28, 2026.

• NBC Sports, Nov. 2, 2026.

• FanDuel Research, MVP odds as of Nov. 3, 2026.