Where Will Tarik Skubal Sign? My Money Is on the Mets

Tarik Skubal is the best free agent on the market, and he probably has less than three weeks to pick a team. The current collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1, 2026, and once a lockout starts, nobody can sign anywhere. As of Nov. 13, 2026, Skubal is scheduled to meet with the New York Mets in California the week of Nov. 16, per MLB.com. Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said the club expects to meet with him "at some point" (MLB.com), and the Blue Jays and Padres have reportedly set up meetings too.

My pick is the Mets, and I think it gets done before Dec. 1.

Where will Tarik Skubal sign? Nobody knows yet. He hasn't signed, and no offer has been reported. The Mets and Dodgers are the two most likely teams, with the Blue Jays and Padres also reportedly meeting with him. MLB.com's Mark Feinsand wrote after the Nov. 10-12 GM meetings that nearly everybody in the game expects Skubal to sign with the Mets, and I agree with that. USA Today reports the Mets are downplaying their chances. The Mets need an ace, they have the money, and I think they're the team most likely to give him the long deal he wants.

01 Why Skubal Is Worth a Record Contract

Skubal won the American League Cy Young Award in 2024 and again in 2025 with Detroit. In 2026 he had a minimally invasive procedure to remove a loose body from his left elbow, missed about six weeks, and still finished with a 2.72 ERA, split between Detroit and the Dodgers, who got him from the Tigers at the deadline for three prospects (ESPN).

Here's his last three seasons, from Baseball-Reference:

That's 43 wins and a 2.42 ERA over 546 innings, and ESPN notes he led the majors with 18 FanGraphs WAR from 2024 to 2026. He's also pitched well in October: a 2.13 ERA in eight postseason starts across 2024, 2025 and 2026, per Baseball-Reference. Even his "down" year, the one with the elbow procedure, was a 155 ERA+.

He made $32 million in 2026 after winning his arbitration case against the Tigers, per MLB.com. His next deal will be a lot bigger than that.

02 How Much Will Skubal's Contract Be?

Almost everyone expects Skubal to set at least one record for a pitcher. These are the marks he's chasing, according to ESPN:

And here's where the projections land:

McDaniel also found that 59% of the panel's projections landed between just above $325 million and $400 million, and 78% of the panel thought Skubal would sign before Dec. 1 (ESPN). My guess is that he ends up in that range, somewhere around eight years. I'm not going to pretend I know the exact number.

The one thing that matters most for where he goes is this line from Passan: Skubal "has no interest in a shorter-term, higher-dollar deal." He wants years. That's what knocks out a lot of teams.

03 Every Team in the Mix

04 The Case for the Mets

Start with need. The Mets missed the postseason the last two years, and president of baseball operations David Stearns views only Nolan McLean and Christian Scott as locks for next year's rotation (ESPN). Sean Manaea had a 4.78 ERA in 2026. Kodai Senga had a 9.66 ERA as a starter before moving to the bullpen. Tylor Megill is coming off Tommy John surgery. That's a team that needs an ace more than any other team in this race.

Then there's money. Steve Cohen owns the team, and the Mets have about $197 million on their 2028 competitive balance tax payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts as cited by ESPN. The Dodgers have about $262 million. That gap matters more than usual right now, because owners are pushing for a salary cap as early as 2028. Passan made the point that even if a cap happens, the Mets can sign Skubal and still stay under it. The Dodgers can't say that as easily.

The hesitation is Stearns. He has never given a pitcher a long-term contract in his career running front offices in Milwaukee and New York, per ESPN. But he chased Yamamoto in his first winter with the Mets, and at the GM meetings he said "every situation is unique." With Cohen pushing, I think Skubal is the exception.

05 The Best Case Against Me: The Dodgers

If the money is close, I think Skubal would rather go back to Los Angeles. ESPN's Alden Gonzalez wrote on Nov. 2 that "all things being equal," his sense is Skubal "would love to return to the Dodgers." He became close with Blake Snell, liked being around veterans focused on winning, and talked about the Dodgers glowingly before their season ended with a four-game NLCS sweep by the Brewers. Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes said at the GM meetings in Las Vegas, "I know that he enjoyed his time here."

That's a real argument. But the Dodgers don't need him the way the Mets do. Their rotation options include Yamamoto, Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki and Emmet Sheehan. And according to ESPN's GM meetings report, some Dodgers officials think their only path to Skubal might be a short-term, high-AAV deal, which is "the type he's highly unlikely to accept." They did that with Kyle Tucker last winter (four years, $240 million). Skubal doesn't want that deal. If the Dodgers won't go long, I don't see how they win this.

06 Could the Yankees Get Him?

My dad Steve and I are both Yankees fans, so I have to ask. Honestly, I don't see it. McDaniel reported on Nov. 3 that the Yankees are "thinking about it," and that they'd likely trade from their pitching depth if they landed him. But the Yankees just had Cam Schlittler win the AL Cy Young unanimously on Nov. 11, and ESPN's GM meetings rundown had Brian Cashman focused on the bullpen, a right-handed-hitting catcher and third base, not an ace. Max Fried had a bone spur removed this offseason and is expected to start throwing again in December, per ESPN.

I'd love to be wrong. I'm not counting on it. If you want more on how Schlittler won, I covered how the Cy Young vote works on Nov. 12, 2026.

07 Why the Lockout Speeds This Up

Normally the best free agent can wait into January. Not this year. I wrote about how long the MLB lockout could last, and if it goes long, an unsigned Skubal could be sitting around until spring. Passan pointed out that teams guaranteed more than $1.5 billion to free agents in the final days before the last lockout in 2021, and executives expect a similar rush in November 2026, especially after the owners' meetings the week of Nov. 16.

There's also the cap question. I don't think baseball needs one (here's why I think MLB needs a floor instead), but the threat of one is already shaping this market. It's a big reason teams with huge future payrolls are cautious, and a big reason I think the Mets have the edge over the Dodgers.

08 Questions People Are Asking

Has Tarik Skubal signed yet? No. As of Nov. 13, 2026, he's a free agent and is meeting with teams. The Mets meeting is scheduled for the week of Nov. 16 in California, per MLB.com.

Who is Tarik Skubal meeting with? The Mets meeting is confirmed for the week of Nov. 16 in California, per MLB.com. Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes said they expect to meet him "at some point." The Blue Jays and Padres have also been reported as meeting with him, per the New York Post and the AP.

How much will Tarik Skubal's contract be? ESPN's insider panel averaged 8 years and $355 million. Some executives think he can reach $400 million. Most expect him to pass Yamamoto's $325 million record for a pitcher.

Will Skubal sign before the lockout? Most people expect it. In McDaniel's poll, 78% of insiders said he'd sign before Dec. 1, 2026, when the CBA expires.

How old is Tarik Skubal? He turns 30 on Nov. 20, 2026, per ESPN.

Why did the Tigers trade Skubal? They traded him to the Dodgers at the 2026 deadline for three prospects. ESPN reported the Tigers never made an extension offer his side considered competitive.

Is Tarik Skubal injured? He's healthy enough to have finished 2026 in the Dodgers' rotation and pitched in the playoffs. His history includes Tommy John surgery in college, a 2022 flexor tendon surgery and the 2026 procedure to remove a loose body from his elbow.

09 Final Thoughts

I keep coming back to two things. Skubal wants a long deal, and the Mets are the team with the biggest need, the most room under a possible cap, and an owner who will pay. The Dodgers have the relationship. The Mets have the reason. I think he's a Met before Dec. 1, and I think the deal is somewhere between Yamamoto's $325 million and $400 million.

That's my prediction, not reporting. If he goes back to L.A., I'll own it.

How I put this together: stats are from Baseball-Reference's Tarik Skubal page. Team-by-team status, payroll figures and quotes come from ESPN reporting by Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel, published between Oct. 2 and Nov. 13, 2026 (with ESPN citing the New York Post, the AP and Cot's Baseball Contracts), plus MLB.com's Mark Feinsand and USA Today. The 2026 salary is from MLB.com. Everything is current as of Nov. 13, 2026.