Should the Colts Trade Jonathan Taylor? Yes, Before His Price Drops

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-5. They fired general manager Chris Ballard on Oct. 19, 2026, the day after a 26-20 home loss to a Tennessee team that hadn't won a game. On Oct. 27, interim GM Ed Dodds traded Quenton Nelson to Seattle and DeForest Buckner to San Francisco for a third, a fourth and a fifth. On Oct. 31, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the Colts are open to trading Jonathan Taylor, and that talks with several teams are "active and ongoing," per NFL.com.

So, should the Colts trade Jonathan Taylor? Yes. I'd do it before the Nov. 10, 2026 deadline, and I wouldn't hold out for a first-round pick that history says isn't coming. Taylor is still one of the best backs in football. That's the reason to sell now. A rebuilding team doesn't get a better chance to cash in a running back than the days before a deadline, with contenders bidding and the player at 27.

Will the Colts trade Jonathan Taylor? Nothing is done yet. As of Nov. 1, 2026, the Colts are listening, and they've already turned down a 2027 second-round pick plus another pick, Tom Pelissero reported. The Broncos, Packers, Vikings, Giants and Seahawks have all been linked to him. The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026, at 4 p.m. ET, per the NFL's official calendar.

What the Colts Have Already Done

The Colts were sellers before Taylor's name came up. Here's what Indianapolis has done in the last week, including the offer it reportedly said no to, from the NFL.com trade tracker and Yahoo Sports:

Nelson and Buckner were both in the last year of their deals, so a mid-round return made sense. Taylor is different. He signed a two-year, $44 million extension on Aug. 6, 2026, which keeps him under contract through 2028, per ESPN. That's what gives Indianapolis leverage, and it's why the Colts can ask for more than they got for Nelson.

The other thing to know: the Colts don't have their own 2027 first-round pick. It goes to the Jets to finish the Sauce Gardner trade, per ESPN. After the Nelson and Buckner trades, ESPN counted one second, two thirds and two fourths in Indy's 2027 draft class. A rebuild with no first-rounder needs picks from somewhere.

Taylor Is Great Right Now. That's the Point

Nobody is arguing Taylor has slipped. Here's his career, season by season, from nflverse's public player stats:

His 18 rushing touchdowns in 2025 led the NFL, and his eight in 2026 led the league entering Week 8, per Colts.com. The same piece notes that his career average of 89.9 rushing yards per game is the best among active players. He has 9,832 yards from scrimmage and 84 touchdowns in seven seasons, per NFL.com.

That's a player contenders will pay for. The question isn't whether he's good. It's whether he'll still be this good when the Colts are good again.

The Clock Runs Faster for Running Backs

Taylor was born on Jan. 19, 1999. He'll be 28 before the 2027 season starts. I wanted to see how often backs that age still carry an offense, so I counted every 1,000-yard rushing season by a running back over the last 10 regular seasons (2016 through 2025) in nflverse's season stats. Age is the player's age on Sept. 1 of that season.

Backs 28 or older produced 20 of the 120, about one in six. Four of those 20 belong to Derrick Henry alone. Go back to 2007 and the list of backs 28 or older who ran for 1,500 yards in a season has exactly one name on it: Henry, who did it in 2022, 2024 and 2025.

Taylor can keep producing at 28. Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Tony Pollard all cleared 1,000 yards at 28 or 29 in 2025. But the Colts would be betting that he stays elite through 2027 and 2028 while they find a GM, probably a quarterback, and a roster. If they wait, they'll be selling a 28-year-old after a lost season instead of a 27-year-old to a contender in a playoff race.

What Running Backs Actually Fetch in a Trade

The Colts want a premium, and I get it. But the price for running backs moved during the season is pretty clear. Here are five notable in-season running back trades since 2013 and what they cost:

Sources: NFL.com and AP (Richardson), the Dolphins and ESPN (Ajayi), the Browns (Hyde), NFL.com (Drake), and Pro Football Reference and NFL.com (McCaffrey). Team records are from nflverse schedules.

Two things jump out. First, McCaffrey is the ceiling. He was a two-time All-Pro, and he brought back four picks, none of them a first. Rapoport has said the Colts may be looking for a package like that one, per Pro Football Rumors. That's a reasonable target. Holding out for a first isn't.

Second, the only team on that list that paid a first-round pick for a running back was the Colts. Indianapolis gave Cleveland a first for Richardson in 2013, and he averaged 3.1 yards a carry before they waived him. The Colts know better than anyone what happens to the team that overpays for a back. This time they should be the team collecting.

Compare that to what happened two days after the Colts' trades. The Titans traded defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons to the Bears on Oct. 29, 2026, for 2027 and 2028 first-round picks plus a 2027 fourth, per the Titans. Teams pay firsts for players who wreck the pocket. The market doesn't treat running backs that way, even very good ones.

Why Now Beats the Offseason

The Colts could keep Taylor and shop him in March. I think that's a mistake, for three reasons.

• The contract gets harder to move. An acquiring team would owe Taylor less than $5 million for the rest of 2026, per Pro Football Rumors and Athlon Sports. His 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed five days after the Super Bowl. A buyer now gets a cheap playoff run and a decision later. A buyer in March gets the guaranteed money with no playoff run attached.

• Deadline buyers pay for urgency. A contender in November is trading for this season's Super Bowl. In March, teams can also shop for backs in free agency and the draft.

• He'll be a year older. Every table above points the same way.

The Best Argument Against Me

The case for keeping Taylor is real. He's the face of the franchise, a three-time captain, and he's not asking out. "I'm always proud to wear the Horseshoe, proud to be here," he told reporters on Oct. 29, 2026, per Colts.com. Schefter said owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon doesn't want to move him, according to Athlon Sports. Trading him now would also leave about $17.6 million in dead money on the 2026 cap, per Over the Cap via Athlon. And if the Colts deal him, they'd be relying on seventh-round pick Seth McGowan and need to find another back anyway, as Sports Illustrated pointed out.

There's also history here. Taylor asked for a trade in the summer of 2023, per NFL.com. The Colts kept him and signed him to a three-year, $42 million extension that October, per AP. Then they extended him again in August 2026. Twice they bet on Taylor, and he gave them 1,431 and 1,585 yards the last two seasons.

All true. But the dead money lands on a season that, at 2-5 and selling, is already about 2027. Keeping a great back on a rebuilding team means his best remaining years happen while the team isn't ready to win. And a premium return can include a player as well as picks. I'm not saying take the first offer. I'm saying take the best McCaffrey-style offer before Nov. 10 instead of waiting for a first that running backs almost never fetch.

Why This One Hits Home for Me

My dad Steve is a Rams fan, and his team is the best example I know of the buyer's side working. On Nov. 1, 2021, the Rams traded 2022 second- and third-round picks to Denver for Von Miller, per the Rams, and that February they won Super Bowl LVI. That's the deadline at its best: a contender pays picks to win now. A rebuilding team should be on the other end of that phone call, and right now the Colts are.

I'm a Chargers fan, so I don't have a horse in the Taylor race. But I'd want my team to be honest about where it is. The Colts were honest when they traded Nelson and Buckner. Taylor is the biggest piece left, and the deadline is the best market they'll get.

Final Thoughts

Should the Colts trade Jonathan Taylor? Yes. He's 27, he's elite, and his trade value won't be higher than it is before Nov. 10, 2026. Over the last 10 seasons, only one in six 1,000-yard running back seasons came from a back 28 or older. The McCaffrey trade, the closest comparison to Taylor, returned a second, third, fourth and fifth, not a first. Get that package now, or something close, and give the next GM more picks to rebuild with.

How I got the numbers: Taylor's season stats and the 1,000-yard seasons by age come from nflverse regular-season player stats (2016-2025 for the age table; 2026 through Week 7), with birth dates from nflverse's player file. Positions are nflverse's listed position, so a player listed as a fullback wouldn't be counted. Team records come from nflverse schedules. Trade terms come from the team, league and wire reports linked above.

If you want to know where those picks land, here's how NFL draft picks are determined. For deadline deals in other sports, see the best NBA trade deadline deals of the last 25 years and the most influential trades in NHL history. And if you're watching Taylor on Sundays, here's how long a football game actually lasts.

Sources:

• NFL.com: Colts willing to trade RB Jonathan Taylor; talks are active, ongoing

• NFL.com: Colts fire GM Chris Ballard

• NFL.com: NFL trade deadline tracker

• NFL.com: 2026-27 NFL important dates

• Yahoo Sports: Colts turn down second-round pick and more for Jonathan Taylor

• Pro Football Rumors: Latest on Jonathan Taylor's trade market

• Athlon Sports: Colts already turned down a second-round pick for Jonathan Taylor

• ESPN: Jonathan Taylor agrees to 2-year, $44M extension

• ESPN: Buckner, Nelson trades signal Colts' rebuild underway

• Colts.com: Jonathan Taylor on trade rumors

• Sports Illustrated: The pros and cons of the Colts trading Jonathan Taylor

• Titans: Jeffery Simmons traded to the Bears

• NFL.com: Trent Richardson traded to Colts

• AP: Colts waive Trent Richardson

• Miami Dolphins: Ajayi traded to Philadelphia

• ESPN: Eagles 41, Patriots 33, Super Bowl LII

• Cleveland Browns: Carlos Hyde traded to Jacksonville

• NFL.com: Dolphins trade Kenyan Drake to Cardinals

• Pro Football Reference: 2022 Panthers trades

• NFL.com: McCaffrey named 2023 AP Offensive Player of the Year

• NFL.com: Jonathan Taylor requests trade (2023)

• AP: Taylor, Colts agree to 3-year, $42 million extension (2023)

• Los Angeles Rams: Rams trade for Von Miller

• nflverse data releases